New condos with big price discounts, how have they fared? A case study on Urban Vista and Enclave Holland

A big drop in price for any condo always catches the attention of many, and the recent 20 per cent price drop at Cuscaden Reserve was no different. People love a good "bargain", and the anchor price phenomenon is never so apparent as when a sale happens.

But the biggest question people typically ask is: "Is it a good deal now?"

As such, to answer that question, we decided to look back at some past condos which had large drops in prices before managing to sell out the development. F's a case study of how Urban Vista and The Enclave.Holland has performed since:

A quick rundown on Urban Vista

Urban Vista is a 99-year leasehold condo, completed in 2016. This is a mid-sized, 582-unit project located at Tanah Merah Kechil Link, just across from the Tanah Merah MRT station (EWL). Note that this MRT stop is significant, as it's the point at which you change trains to get to Changi Airport.

As to the underperformance, you can check out further details here, but the numbers below will also reveal this. 

Here's what prices look like today:

Prices by unit type

Losses were the most severe in the year right after launch. This is because 2013 was the previous peak in the property market, so buyers in that year saw the biggest losses. As one sign of this, consider that those who bought in 2014, versus 2013, generally saw better gains:

Bedrooms	2013	2014	2015
1BR	-2.2 per cent
1BR PES	4.5 per cent
1BR PH	-15.2 per cent	36.7 per cent
2BR	-0.6 per cent
2BR DK	-1.0 per cent		13.0 per cent
2BR DK PH	4.6 per cent	-0.6 per cent
2BR PES	-3.3 per cent
2BR PH	14.4 per cent
3BR	-3.0 per cent	6.8 per cent
3BR DK	-6.4 per cent
3BR PES	-4.3 per cent
3BR PH	-3.9 per cent
4BR	-12.1 per cent	4.1 per cent
4BR DK	-1.8 per cent	2.0 per cent
Grand Total	-2.2 per cent	8.6 per cent	13.0 per cent

(Although admittedly, there is a much lower volume of people who bought in 2014 and resold, compared to the year prior) 

The initial prices in 2013 also weren't unfairly high 

We wouldn't want to give the wrong impression that the buyers in 2013 bought at ridiculous prices. Even though it was a peak year, a comparison to the nearby Casa Merah (built in 2009) shows that Urban Vista wasn't overpriced for the time:

Project Name	Transacted Price ($)	Area (SQFT)	Bedroom	Unit Price ($ PSF)	Sale Date
Casa Merah	$1,190,000	947	2	1256	22 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,230,000	947	2	1299	2 Aug 2013
Casa Merah	$1,227,000	1227	3	1000	16 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,370,000	1227	3	1116	21 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,455,000	1227	3	1186	23 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,480,000	1227	3	1206	31 Oct 2013
Casa Merah	$1,500,000	1238	3	1212	18 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,560,000	1238	3	1260	19 June 2013
Casa Merah	$1,500,000	1249	3	1201	14 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,500,000	1259	3	1191	18 Oct 2013
Casa Merah	$1,458,000	1270	3	1148	12 Mar 2013
Casa Merah	$1,530,000	1281	3	1194	7 Jan 2013
Casa Merah	$1,650,000	1302	3	1267	8 Oct 2013
Casa Merah	$1,610,000	1346	3	1197	9 Oct 2013
Casa Merah	$1,680,000	1378	3	1219	8 Mar 2013
Casa Merah	$1,653,600	1378	3	1200	18 Mar 2013

Back in 2013, the resale three-bedders at neighbouring Casa Merah were selling for about $1,186 psf, while Urban Vista's three-bedders went for about $1,452 psf. This was a premium of 22.4 per cent for Urban Vista at the time, which is not an unusual price gap for a condo that's seven years newer. 

What's happened in recent years? 

The prices at Urban Vista did improve over the last few years; but it was only toward 2022/23 that some of the earlier buyers would have recovered their costs or profited. But this is probably due to the overall market conditions (e.g., the housing supply crunch right after Covid) which affected all condos, not something specific to Urban Vista. 

Here are the prices right now:

Price movements by stack

Click to view the full image here.

Price drops are noticeable in stack 23. Notice that units on levels 10 to 13 saw a fall in price psf for three-bedders, down to $1,341 psf and $1,370 psf respectively. This is cheaper than units on lower floors, which is strange as higher floor units are typically more desirable (the price discrepancy could be down to other factors, such as the condition or renovation status, which is not factored in here). 

Stack 24, right next to it, also saw price drops - and again we can see a strange phenomenon where 13th and 12th-floor units (at $1,270 psf) are cheaper than most lower-floor units. 

Note that stacks 23 and 24 are inner-facing stacks with a pool view. Perhaps the higher floor units would be more desirable if they were outward-facing; but frankly, there's not a lot to see in this part of Tanah Merah (unless you like to see the train station or other condos).

Profitable versus unprofitable transactions

Unprofitable transactions still outnumber the profitable ones. There are 83 losing transactions to 70 winning ones:

What do the average profits look like today?

Bedrooms	2013	2014	2015
1BR	-$17,158
1BR PES	$29,362
1BR PH	-$114,389	$318,000
2BR	-$5,395
2BR DK	-$11,288		$130,000
2BR DK PH	$61,216	-$8,000
2BR PES	-$30,652
2BR PH	$180,000
3BR	-$38,248	$72,831
3BR DK	-$87,210
3BR PES	-$60,087
3BR PH	-$71,936
4BR	-$186,392	$49,750
4BR DK	-$26,248	$28,500

Overall, Urban Vista does seem to be recovering from its poor timing issues; and there's certainly no defect or failings that would make it an inferior project.

As an aside, the upcoming Sceneca Residence will add some much-needed commercial amenities to the area. Given that Sceneca Residence is much pricier, but condos like Urban Vista, Optima, Casa Merah, etc. have the same advantage of location (and can access the same commercial component), buyers might show more interest in these older resale alternatives.

A quick rundown on The Enclave.Holland 

(Ps. The period mark isn't a typo, it's in the name)

The Enclave is a boutique, freehold development along Holland Road, with just 26 units; which if you follow our articles, you'll know is already a potential sign of trouble. The Enclave really does have a location that might make up for it though, as it's just minutes away from Holland Village MRT (CCL).

The MRT station is also roughly the hub of Holland V, where you find most of the eateries, shops, and other entertainment; so this project is very convenient. This project is also quite new, having been built in 2019.

What went wrong?

The Enclave began sales in March of 2013, and again, this was a year of peak prices. To say that sales were slow is an understatement, as only 10 of the 26 units were sold by 2018. The remaining 16 units were sold between 2019 and 2020, which was after the project's completion.

<p>Here's how the price moved on a year-on-year basis:

New Sale			Resale
2018	2019	2020	2023
$2,622	$2,475	$1,848	$2,501
$2,450	$2,467	$2,081	$2,366
		$1,844
		$1,922

There was an almost 30 per cent price drop for one-bedders here, from $2,622 psf in 2018, to $1,848 psf. This price drop may have been the reason the developers could finally move the last few units. However, this would be a major blow to the earlier buyers (the first 10 units sold), given that the later sales set the new baseline price. 

This may be due to the oversaturation of condos in the Holland V area at the time, which we covered in this article. Another reason would be the many freehold developments nearby (in fact being freehold is not a big advantage here, as it's the norm in Holland V). 

If you compare price alone, The Enclave is not much more expensive than its competitors:

Project Name	Transacted Price ($)	Area (SQFT)	Unit Price ($ PSF)	Sale Date
Holland Residences	$1,220,000	603	$2,024	23/2/18
Holland Residences	$1,760,000	969	$1,817	20/4/18
Holland Residences	$1,680,000	980	$1,715	19/11/18
Holland Residences	$2,900,000	1884	$1,540	12/4/18
Holland Residences	$2,965,000	1916	$1,548	1/2/18
Holland Residences	$3,750,000	2185	$1,716	4/7/18
Loft@Holland	$800,000	323	$2,477	2/2/18
Loft@Holland	$823,000	323	$2,549	3/9/18
Loft@Holland	$890,000	431	$2,067	30/7/18
Loft@Holland	$900,000	431	$2,090	6/9/18
Loft@Holland	$1,600,000	980	$1,633	10/7/18
The Cornwall	$1,150,000	614	$1,874	22/6/18
The Cornwall	$1,200,000	635	$1,890	9/3/18
The Cornwall	$1,241,730	657	$1,891	29/6/18
The Cornwall	$1,230,000	657	$1,873	12/7/18
The Cornwall	$1,260,000	667	$1,888	26/6/18
The Cornwall	$1,340,000	764	$1,753	10/10/18
The Cornwall	$2,400,800	1464	$1,640	19/11/18

 

Project Name	Built	1BR	2BR	3BR	4BR
Holland Residences	2012	$2,024	$1,766	$1,544	$1,716
Loft@Holland	2014	$2,296	$1,633
The Cornwall	2005	$1,862		$1,640

At $2,622 psf, The Enclave was about 15 per cent higher than existing competitors, which is not a very big price gap for a newer condo. The difference here is that some of the competitors are bigger and have more room for facilities. In addition, the Holland V area tends to attract more affluent families who can afford bigger units, not just one or two-bedders; so The Enclave would be more niche, and appeal more to landlords.

(And new investors, by the way, are unlikely to start with a pricier, higher-risk expense of a boutique Holland V condo)  

But have prices recovered today? 

Here's a look at how prices have moved by floor:

Floor	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1			$1,850	$2,554	$2,361	$1,849
2	$2,670	$1,850	$1,850	$2,591	$2,284	$2,166	$2,671
3	$2,682	$1,844	$1,891	$2,502	$2,467	$2,578	$2,683
4	$2,475				$2,563	$2,439	$1,848
5		$1,851	$2,094		$2,208	$1,850

In 2023, condo prices went up across the board, so it's unsurprising we saw some improvement in The Enclave as well. However, note that the earliest buyers wouldn't have recovered their costs even then; and as far as profit goes, it's the buyers who purchased in 2020 who are likely to see gains.

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Of the 26 units, it's mostly the one-bedders that sold well and were the first to go. As they were mostly in stacks 1, 4, and 7, it's unsurprising that these stacks are mostly in the green. 

The larger units (three and four-bedders) are mostly found in stacks two and three, hence the weaker performance of these two stacks; while stack 6 has the two-bedders.

As far as resale goes, there have been only two transactions since 2019; this sort of low transaction volume is quite common in boutique condos:

While we wouldn't usually go on two transactions alone, we notice these two coincide with what we've mentioned above: the seller who initially purchased the unit in 2020 saw a profit, while the one who bought it in 2018 saw a loss.

As with most boutique condos, the low number of units - and accompanying low transaction volume - makes resale prices volatile. It's hard to guess when, or if, the prices will recover sufficiently for the earliest buyers; so hopefully they purchased this for pure own-stay use rather than gains. 

This article was first published in Stackedhomes.